Hawaii's Futures
Price of Paradise · Hawaii Public Radio · aired 1995-03-05
Guests: James Dator (futurist, University of Hawaii); Jack Suyderhoud (economist, University of Hawaii)
Duration: 1:08:54

[00:00:02] Randall Roth: Good morning. This is Randy Roth, host of The Price of Paradise Radio show. The topic of today's show is Hawaii's futures. And with me in the studio to discuss it are two of my colleagues from the University of Hawaii. Jim Dator is a futures studies specialist in the Political Science Department, and Jack Siderhoud is an economist in the College of Business. Good morning, gentlemen.
[00:00:22] Jack Suyderhoud: Good morning.
[00:00:25] Randall Roth: Futures studies. I always think I'm getting an extra S in there.
[00:00:29] James Dator: You are, and I appreciate it.
[00:00:31] Randall Roth: Uh, what is futures studies?
[00:00:34] James Dator: Well, it is the study of ideas about the future, and how our beliefs about the future affect our decisions in the present, and how these decisions then shape the future. It is not about studying the future, which can't be studied. So and that's one of the big misunderstandings a lot of people have. They assume that I am predicting the future. Crystal balls always are mentioned and that's not what we try to do.
[00:01:00] Randall Roth: Is it that you're saying if you make this decision today, here's the future you're likely to get from it?
[00:01:06] James Dator: Yes, that's one of the the things we try to do and to get people to understand the source of their ideas about the future. Uh and generally speaking, people have rather, may I say, anemic ideas because it's not part of their academic discipline. They're taught how to think about the past, how to think about the present, but not how to think usefully about the future. And so they are easily uh swayed by, let's say, Buck Rogers or Star Trek or fictional accounts, which are very dramatic and very exciting, but not necessarily very helpful, or their own personal experience. Which uh may not be very helpful in understanding the future either.
[00:01:45] Randall Roth: I think the first time I read the term was when I saw the book Future Shock, which has been out 10, 20 years.
[00:01:52] James Dator: 20. It was uh 71.
[00:01:54] Randall Roth: Okay. And very recently, it's been in the newspapers quite a lot because a friend of yours is evidently uh big on future studies, and his name is being uh bounced about uh sometimes rather hard by people, Newt Gingrich.
[00:02:07] James Dator: Newt Gingrich, yes. I met him in uh connection with Alvin Toffler as a matter of fact, uh when Gingrich was still teaching at uh Georgia West Georgia College or whatever the name of that place was. I let's call him an acquaintance rather than a friend.
[00:02:22] Randall Roth: Is would you call him a a futures studies specialist?
[00:02:26] James Dator: Um, well I would call him a futurist in the sense that he was a person who uh had a uh a use the techniques of future studies to get where he is at the present time. Uh he is one of the most successful applied futurist I've ever met in that uh 20 years ago he articulated to us the vision that he is now unfolding uh for himself and for the rest of us who live in the United States.
[00:02:52] Randall Roth: So he's been talking about what's going on now for a long time.
[00:02:55] James Dator: Absolutely. That's one of the things that I think is really important for people to understand. Whether they like what he's doing or not, it is not something he suddenly made up on the spur of the moment. He has been uh plotting this and I if you want I could go into some of the details of the things that he has been doing to get to this particular position.
[00:03:13] Randall Roth: Well I want to come back to that. Jack Siderhoud, you're an economist, an economist sometimes talk about the short run and sometimes talk about the long run. When economists talk about the long run, are we talking about futures studies?
[00:03:26] Jack Suyderhoud: Um to some extent, yes. When I was in graduate school, they gave us a warning that said never forecast anything, especially the future. And um uh unfortunately we are uh we are forced to do those sorts of things uh by uh the nature of circumstances. Uh for example, I sit on the uh State Council on Revenues, which uh forecasts uh tax revenues for the state uh up to nine years into the future. Generally uh we regard a short run as being a couple of years into the future and a long run as being anything beyond that. And I think uh the most interesting part of uh the sorts of things that uh that Jim does and hopefully the things that we can talk about today are these long run trends that uh that may prevail uh for Hawaii and into the future.
[00:04:10] Randall Roth: Jim Dator, uh when we talk about future studies here in Hawaii, what immediately comes to mind? What are those things that are going to impact us more in the future than uh than perhaps a lot of people realize?
[00:04:24] James Dator: Well I think that um the the major things that I focus on when people ask me to talk about Hawaii is not are not things inside Hawaii, but rather the forces outside that it uh needs to to recognize and deal with. Um at at the present time I don't think there is any political community anywhere in the world that is autonomous, self-sufficient uh that my statement about Hawaii is true of the largest political community I can imagine. But it's desperately so here in Hawaii, and I think we tend to look too much inward and not enough outward at the forces that are really shaping our destiny.
[00:05:01] Randall Roth: Jack Siderhoud, do you agree with that?
[00:05:03] Jack Suyderhoud: Oh absolutely. When I was uh when you asked me to come to this show I thought a little bit about uh what kind of trends and um exist for the economy and what sort of things we could expect in the future. And I made a list of things and all of these things are really external factors. Uh things that are not really happening in Hawaii um in any particular sense, but things which we have to deal with in the future. Uh I'm thinking about uh continued advances in science and technology, growing efficiency in production um a global inter economic interdependency, advances in life expectancies, those kinds of long term trends um which are part of our entire world community, certainly will affect us significantly here in Hawaii.
[00:05:47] Randall Roth: In in the past, we've had a number of shows where the theme of uh of powerlessness, a sense of community has come up and as I I'm listening to the two of you, uh in a way, if if all of these mega forces are from the outside, which by definition, we here in Hawaii don't control, um is that part of the explanation as to why so many people seem to feel they've lost a control over their own destiny?
[00:06:11] James Dator: Well, I suppose it could be. Um and yet I don't think that needs to be the case. I I I don't think under any circumstances people control their their own lives as much as they think they they might. Uh it's sort of romantic to believe that at one time Hawaii was uh under control of itself entirely. Maybe 200, 250 years ago, but certainly not within modern times.
[00:06:33] Randall Roth: So so now it's just more obvious that we're part of a global something, a global economy.
[00:06:38] James Dator: Well it's obvious to me, I'm not sure it's obvious to everybody else. And that's that's part of the problem is that we here in Hawaii really haven't decided whether we want to try to separate ourselves from these global trends and uh pretend or really try to be self-sufficient and independent. Not not in the sense of totally cut off, but to have a much greater control than we have at the present time, or whether we want to find a proper individual and social niche within the global political economy.
[00:07:08] Randall Roth: But is that a false choice, because I thought I heard you say earlier that we really don't have that first option, that we may think we do, but we really can't control our own destiny.
[00:07:18] James Dator: Well, um in in as much as so many people in Hawaii uh who are thinking about the future feel that it is a choice, I can't say that just because I have my my doubts about its viability that it's it's false. Um and but I would I do question people who uh feel this way uh as to what? Okay, let's assume you get whatever sort of independence you envision. How will this be maintained given what I call the tsunamis uh that are approaching us from the future, which may be the same things that uh Jack is calling trends.
[00:07:53] Randall Roth: I've heard you say that before that that the future is rushing upon us like a tsunami and and we have to learn to surf the tsunami?
[00:08:00] James Dator: That's that's the metaphor and that's exactly the the balance between uh inevitability let me say and choice that I think we have at the present time. There are these major forces, but still we have an enormous amount of discretion and I and I think social it should be socially determined what we do with them about how to uh approach them, how to ride them, and to make it enjoyable.
[00:08:22] Randall Roth: Jack, do you agree that that there's a fork in the road of of sorts and in one direction is really accepting that we're part of a global economy and that uh we don't control a lot of things and that we just try to find our our own little uh niche in the the scheme of things. The other direction is we try to to break off from the rest of the world. We we try to insulate ourselves and and try to hang on to what we've had in the past is is that a fork in the road that you see?
[00:08:48] Jack Suyderhoud: Well I I don't really regard it as kind of a fork in the road. I see it as being kind of a continuum of uh decisions that we have to make uh in in this regard. I my feeling is that uh using using Jim's metaphor, that there are certain waves you can select to ride and other ones that you uh might not want to. Uh but I think the most important thing um as Jim mentioned is to recognize that these waves are coming and that that we have to do something about them. And maybe that's that's the important fork in the road. You know, whether we decide to or exactly how we decide to deal with these trends is uh is really up to us as a so as a society as Jim mentioned.
[00:09:27] Jack Suyderhoud: But the most important thing that I see is that we have to be aware that these things are occurring because if we're not aware, then in fact we'll be sitting on the beach when they land.
[00:09:36] Randall Roth: And when you say we, um presumably political leadership fits into the equation in some way. Are our political leaders at this point in time thinking about or beginning to deal with these these waves that are headed our way, Jack?
[00:09:52] Jack Suyderhoud: Um no. Well, well perhaps uh perhaps to some extent, but uh you know, certainly most of the attention that uh that political leaders seem to uh seem to have is uh is for short term problems.
[00:10:07] Randall Roth: And does does that reflect the community that that elected them or or is the community a little bit more um concerned about the long run?
[00:10:16] Jack Suyderhoud: Oh, I think we're we're concerned about the long run. What I I think all of us have uh have short run problems.
[00:10:21] Randall Roth: Yeah, we complain about the short run, right? And then wonder why the political leaders are are so focused on the short run.
[00:10:27] Jack Suyderhoud: We we live in the short run. Okay.
[00:10:29] James Dator: Let me say that I think there is a fundamental um dilemma with democracy uh that uh as a political scientist I that perplexes me and is the focus of a lot of my academic work and teaching. Because we we have created a system and have proliferated around the world systems which focus on what voters want and what uh money uh uh considers to be important. And these are almost always immediate short term uh sorts of things. So that we have not yet found a successful political way to bring concerns of the future into our day-to-day decision-making. And uh this is desperately important. Uh and uh one of the ways in which we are trying recently to reconceptualize this is around the concept of future generations.
[00:11:19] James Dator: What is the obligation the present generation has to the welfare of future generations? And moral philosophers and environmental ethicists and other people around the world are for the first time beginning to turn attention to this.
[00:11:33] Randall Roth: I read uh Reinventing Government for the first time just the other day and and was delighted to see there's a long quote uh attributed to you.
[00:11:40] James Dator: I don't remember saying that. But it's a great quote so. It's a great it's a great quote. Some Jim Dator from the University of Hawaii evidently at one time said that in the past we've uh worshipped our ancestors and in the future we simply have to worship our descendants. That's right.
[00:11:56] Randall Roth: Okay. In case you joined us late, this is the Price of Paradise Radio Show. I'm Randy Roth and my guests today are two professors from the University of Hawaii, economist Jack Siderhoud and Future Studies specialist Jim Dator. This is a live broadcast and your calls are welcome. To ask a question or make a comment, just call 955-8821. Neighbor islanders are always invited to call collect, the number again, 955-8821. Jack, as an economist, uh what do you see in the future for Hawaii with respect to to our economy in general, and and the wealth distribution. In other words, people talk a lot about the rich getting richer, the poor getting poorer. Uh we are experiencing that to some degree in Hawaii now.
[00:12:44] Randall Roth: When you look down the road 20 years or 50 years or 100 years, uh where do we seem to be headed?
[00:13:04] Jack Suyderhoud: Um and um my feeling in that regard is that we are going to be very much like that, in the sense that um 10 years ago, uh someone said that Hawaii was in danger of being a uh a backwater in the world, in the sense that uh uh air transportation was uh had developed technologically so that um we could uh that you could fly from Los Angeles to Australia without stopping in Hawaii, and that was a concern, a real concern for some people. My feeling is that uh that's no longer an issue uh because the world 20 years from now and the economy 20 years from now are going to be uh pretty much determined by access to information.
[00:13:46] Jack Suyderhoud: And that's not uh not bound by geography. And so I think we have as good a chance as anywhere else in the world to be a major player in the world economy, or a player to what to the extent that we desire to be a player in the economy.
[00:14:00] Randall Roth: So in the past where our our location might have been an advantage for a while, might have been a disadvantage for a while, location is becoming less and less important?
[00:14:07] Jack Suyderhoud: Uh in terms of that in terms of that sort of economy, that sort of world economy that's driven primarily by access to information and information services and things like that. And so um if if we're going to be a a player in that game, then we're going to need people who are going to be able to play in that game. And those people who are going to be successful in that game are going to be the ones with education and skills, and those are the ones who are going to be economically viable in in a world that is like that.
[00:14:35] James Dator: Can I jump in here because I'm uh I agree with a lot of what you're saying, but I'm also looking more at the what I see is the downside of of the implications. Um it I for example, we had a uh a discussion in the Futures Research Center last Friday on the future of work and the speaker was a person, Tom Carson, who's in town here, a former uh who worked with the Chase Manhattan Bank doing long range development um uh loans and with the Interdevelopment Inter, I forget what it's called, bank in South America and now is a Future Studies student at George Washington University and uh he gave a a I thought a wonderful seminar in which he really says that uh the number of people that um either can attain the sorts of education and manifest the skills that you describe, and as well as the number of jobs that you're talking about.
[00:15:31] James Dator: He feels are optimistically maybe 50%, more realistically during the discussion maybe 20 or 30% at the max. And that we are therefore talking about at least half of the population and maybe 2/3 or 3/4 that are essentially either unemployed or uh employed in extremely low paying unsatisfying jobs. I sort of look at the world that way in Hawaii. I wonder what Jack's feeling is.
[00:15:56] Randall Roth: Is that because the the half that uh aren't going to be employed or aren't going to be employed in in meaningful work, don't have the ability, or is it because we're going to fail that group of people because our our educational system isn't going to be up to speed?
[00:16:12] James Dator: Well, a little bit of both, but uh one of the things we definitely did talk about was access to education and the form of education that we're we're still emphasizing. So it's it's a little bit of both.
[00:16:22] Jack Suyderhoud: Jack, I think Jim wanted your thoughts on this. Well, I I tend to agree uh with the exception of the fact that um it's extremely difficult to see what exactly the ramifications of all of these trends are um for 20 years down the road. I don't think any of us um 20 years ago had predicted the personal computer and the revolution that it is created in the in the job market and Yes, we did.
[00:16:45] James Dator: Oh, sorry. Well okay but uh Or or that we had the kind of knowledge uh about the uh the ramifications of these sorts of changes.
[00:16:58] Jack Suyderhoud: And um and so I I'm I'm um I'm not as pessimistic that uh that it'll be that small a fraction of the population that will have access to these kinds of jobs. I think uh the economies will redefine themselves and people will redefine themselves if they have the capability of doing that.
[00:17:16] Randall Roth: Okay. Well, we have a caller from Maui, John. Good morning, John.
[00:17:20] John: Good morning. Uh the question is for Jim Dator and what's the role of the community colleges or what what would be the role of a community college faculty in trying to figure out uh what the future holds?
[00:17:32] James Dator: Well, um I'm I'm glad you asked that question because as you may know, I've been particularly um enthusiastic about community colleges as being more adaptable to the changing uh economic uh environment than the so called flagship. I I tend to feel that we're a flagship like the Titanic but so flagship and uh are very difficult to change, whereas the community colleges which uh are intended to be more sensitive to the needs of the community, can in fact make the sorts of shifts. Now, whether you it is happening or not, I don't I don't know, but at least the theoretically I believe it can be more adaptable.
[00:18:13] Jack Suyderhoud: But I think that the whole idea of teaching the sorts of skills that that you focused uh on in the past, this has to definitely be re-examined.
[00:18:22] Randall Roth: Jack Siderhoud, are are those of us at uh the Manoa campus part of the Titanic of higher education in Hawaii?
[00:18:30] Jack Suyderhoud: Uh while sometimes I I I feel exactly that way. Um I I I worry though that uh that the university system that we have in this state is so um I don't want to say bureaucratic. Well, the whole thing is bureaucratic. Uh the University of Hawaii at Manoa is bureaucratic. The community colleges are are bureaucratic in a number of ways. And um I really wonder whether the structure that we have will allow the kind of flexibility that Jim uh Jim needs or Jim perceives that we need.
[00:18:57] John: John? Thank you very much.
[00:18:59] Randall Roth: You bet. Thank you. Call. Bye-bye. How do we as a community think more and talk more and act more on our possible futures? I know some years ago, Jim, you were part of this Hawaii 2000 movement. What should we do today if we want to get into this?
[00:19:17] James Dator: Well, you know, when you asked me uh at the top of the show about what when I think about the future of Hawaii, what do I think about. I must admit one of the things I think about first is the past, namely that Hawaii 2000 activity, which occurred in uh basically 1970, a very long time ago, in which we were talking about uh the year 2000, 30 30 years away, which is in my opinion, the appropriate time span for thinking about the future of a political community, uh 20 to 30 years, not not the immediate short range things. So, um, I think it is desperately time to launch something in the 2020-2030 uh time frame again for the people here in Hawaii. And I believe it's happening. First of all, I wish the uh Price of Paradise folks would pick that up as a as a major theme, and I'd like to work with anyone who would like to do so. But the Hawaii Community Services Council, the Chamber of Commerce, a group of other people are in the process now of what they're calling a benchmarking activity for the the state, which might turn into the sort of um equivalent now of what the Hawaii 2000 activity was back then. I really think we need it. It it back then it was a huge, big, uh all islands involved, all classes, all age groups, uh the most extensive act of what Alvin Toffler defined as anticipatory democracy, uh that we've ever engaged in. And I think we need to do it again.
[00:20:55] Randall Roth: What do you think, Jack?
[00:20:56] Jack Suyderhoud: Well, I'm I'm more concerned about uh what five, five, 10 years down the road, although I I certainly think that uh the uh 20, 30 year horizon is extremely important. Um, I'd like to see us also concentrate on um how we get to where we want to be um 30 years down the road. And obviously, first of all, you have to decide what you want to be 30 years down the road. So obviously, part of uh part of this process has to be a uh a discussion of what we want to be like uh 10 years from now, 15 years from now.
[00:21:28] Randall Roth: Well now, you've lived here a long time. What do you think we, the people of Hawaii, want to be like 30 years from now?
[00:21:34] Jack Suyderhoud: I don't think we know. I I think that we are really of uh of uh personally and collectively of split minds about this sort of thing.
[00:21:42] Randall Roth: Can can we know, is this the sort of thing that we as a community can can get a a better focus on?
[00:21:48] Jack Suyderhoud: Well, I think we certainly need to discuss it because there are trade-offs involved in this sort of thing. To what extent do you uh do you give up your your own sense of independence, um to be part of a world community, to what extent do you uh do you trade off present um things that you want uh for investment in the future in terms of uh uh public uh funds um that sort of thing. So they're uh uh they're important trade-offs that we have to face, and I don't think that we're particularly uh inclined to uh to discuss trade-offs. I mean, they're they're sometimes they're unpleasant.
[00:22:22] Randall Roth: Okay. In case you joined us late, this is the Price of Paradise Radio Show. I'm Randy Roth, and my guests today are two professors from the University of Hawaii, economist Jack Suyderhoud and future studies specialist Jim Dator. We're live, your calls are welcome, to ask a question or make a comment just call 955-8821. Jim, how does sovereignty fit into what you and Jack were just saying?
[00:22:45] James Dator: Well, that's one of the most exciting things that is going on at the present time, that um various uh folks within the the Native Hawaiian community are uh thinking about a future that is very different from the present or the past. And uh I applaud uh just from a uh futurist point of view, this effort. Uh and at the present time, uh it appears from public opinion data as well as just casual conversations that most of the citizens in Hawaii are sympathetic uh of the aspirations in back of that and the reasons uh for uh the Native Hawaiian community thinking this way. Uh I think that the people who aren't uh Native Hawaiians are thinking increasingly of their role in it, their place in it, the consequences of various forms of sovereignty for themselves. And as the discussion gets more and more specific, I think that that there there may be uh less uh obvious support than there is at the present time. But I find it very exciting. Let me say one of the most interesting things about this movement, though, is that it's part of a global movement.
[00:23:58] Randall Roth: Mhmm.
[00:23:58] James Dator: That uh that the people here in Hawaii are learning from, participating with, teaching other indigenous peoples all around the world. So in my opinion, it is one of the most ironic uh examples of the globalism that we are talking about before, that all over the world local people are learning from each other about how to be more local.
[00:24:22] Randall Roth: Ah, we're not alone. No, we have several callers on the line. First, Martha from Hawaii Kai. Good morning, Martha.
[00:24:29] Martha: Hi, thanks for taking my call.
[00:24:31] Randall Roth: Sure.
[00:24:31] Martha: Um, I I have my questions lead up to my point. Um, and I'm wondering, is there a way of life beyond the computer? A way of life that is not uh completely based on consumption? And then this is my question, is there any level of self-sustainability possible for Hawaii as a protection against uh outside forces?
[00:24:51] Randall Roth: Let's ask our economist Jack Suyderhoud uh self-sufficiency is that possible?
[00:24:57] Jack Suyderhoud: Um Some some level of self-sufficiency. Well, I first of all, uh total self-sufficiency is not possible, and uh I I think to to some extent you can't be uh uh well, it's it's like being uh 50% pregnant. I mean, you're either self-sufficient or you're not. Um, my feeling is that uh Yeah. we we we can um um we can do some things that uh that will make us self-sufficient. But we are um going to have to be part of the world community for uh a number of of of reasons. One is that we don't have the resources that our people need. And secondly, um I think that our future is going to be tied our what we can do depends uh largely on what the world wants from us. And so we're going to have to be part of that world.
[00:25:48] Martha: There's no level of of of um a low level of sustainability that would be a protection such as uh having enough uh growth of vegetables and food and uh things like that.
[00:26:00] Jack Suyderhoud: Well, I I don't think that's all that in uh that important i if uh if we have no income. Uh so you know, if we if we don't have tourists for example, we have no income and so inevitably we're going to be tied to the um to the world community. Whether we grow our own vegetables entirely or our own fruit entirely, or what else. Um so I you know, there will always be uh interdependence.
[00:26:23] Martha: I was just wondering if there's any low level that we could work towards that would be sort of a safe
[00:26:28] James Dator: Let me, this is Jim Dator. Let me respond by saying as Randy said at the beginning, this is futures with an S meaning alternatives. And I think that it is possible uh to uh envision plausible scenarios that will force us to be um self-sufficient and independent whether we want to or not. And therefore, I feel that it is very uh advisable for especially for people who are so inclined to keep the skills that might very well be necessary to sustain it this us uh individually and collectively, should something happen in terms of say a global uh depression or substantial changes in the natural environment. So I I do think that it's a very worthwhile thing for especially for those people that are so inclined to develop those skills.
[00:27:23] Randall Roth: Thank you, Martha.
[00:27:24] Martha: You're welcome.
[00:27:25] Randall Roth: Appreciate your call. We've got a number of people on the line. Next is George from the Big Island. Good morning, George.
[00:27:31] George: Hey, good morning, Randy. Um I have a picture that I cut out of magazine years ago of an island, about maybe five acres in area. And except for the fringing white beach around it, the entire area is roofs. And I think it's a powerful photo of our future if we continue to worship um development and progress as as we do without any recognition that this is an island state.
[00:28:00] Randall Roth: George, let let me take that and and rephrase it for Jim Dator because as I was listening to you, I was I was thinking to myself, when different groups go through strategic planning, they try to develop a a group vision and mission statement and goals and all that sort of thing. Uh Jim Dator, what should our mission statement be? Uh are we after a good solid economy which perhaps will lead to to rooftops from beach to beach, or are we after something else? What's our mission statement?
[00:28:17] James Dator: Well, no, I um I'm not going to answer that because I am profoundly uh committed to having uh the the community involved in answering that question. My my answer would be whatever the people of Hawaii themselves want after having gone through a an experience that enables them to answer it intelligently and convincingly. But I would like to respond to the the rooftop uh image per se, because one of the tsunamis that I think are that we need to think about here in Hawaii more is that of global population growth. And uh I regret to say that uh population one uh Proposition 187 concerned with controlling uh uh immigration, legal or illegal in California is something that we need to think about here in Hawaii. Not that I'm in favor of it, but to recognize that we are in the beginning of a massive global migration. And there's not it's it's not going to be possible for us or any other political community to keep out the thousands, millions, indeed billions of new bodies that are going to be present on the earth over the 21st century. Oh my. And so we'd better get get a grip on that. George, thank you for your call.
[00:29:53] Randall Roth: May I say one other thing. Uh real quickly, we've got a bunch of people on the line. I'm not sure that the politicians are really doing what the people want. Uh I I see one thing for the people and another for the politicians. For example on the Big Island here George, we we've got to cut you off. There are just too many people waiting. Okay. Thank you, though. High did in literacy a great deal. And given the shocking rates of illiteracy all over the country, in general and and Hawaii in particular, what do you think is the future of print literacy in the information highway?
[00:34:45] Jack Suyderhoud: Oh boy. Well, Jack, so how do you talked about technological development a little bit ago? Um, well, I I think the the need to be literate um is is obviously very important, and I think that will continue to be very important. I I don't exactly know what you mean by print literacy, whether it's uh the ability to are merely the ability to read and write coherently, or whether it's a an appreciation of some of the finer points in reading and writing and uh communicating, uh being able to uh comprehend what is being read.
[00:35:17] Martha: Many people think they can read just because they can decode and are unable to understand what they're reading. So they think they're literate but they aren't in in actuality.
[00:35:27] Jack Suyderhoud: Well, I I think that uh that sort of skill is going to be tremendously important and we clearly we need a foundation of that to be successful in the future.
[00:35:34] James Dator: Well, I I would take a completely different point of view and for many, many years I have uh been more concerned about what I call media literacy. Most people get most of their information uh in the world not from reading and writing but from uh a variety of audio uh visual media and yet they do not know how to produce uh and phrase their frame their own ideas through these technologies. I would have the schools and individuals focus primarily on gaining that kind of literacy. Uh and in fact, using that you I think communication is you're quite correct in focusing on rather than on uh a I believe essentially obsolescent uh form of communication reading and writing. Uh that may sound counter-intuitive given our computers at the present time, but I think that uh that the interface is is changing very rapidly there as well.
[00:36:27] Randall Roth: Thank you, Joel. Thank you, Joanna. Hello. Our next caller is Ben from Honolulu. Good morning, Ben.
[00:36:32] Caller: Good morning. Um, I'd like our two guests to uh to say something about the future if uh in the field of conflict resolution.
[00:36:43] Randall Roth: Conflict resolution.
[00:36:44] Caller: Yep, it seems to me that if we don't learn some new skills and some new ways of handling differences, uh political, economic, uh as a matter of fact, ethnic differences in some parts of the world are responsible for terrible wars. One of the points that was just made about population growth if we uh don't have some way of coping with that we may wind up killing each other off in order to have less people on the earth. It's happened before. Um, and incidentally uh I'm a visitor here in Hawaii. I'm really impressed with some of the beginnings that have been made here in the field uh like the the reactivation of Hoʻoponopono and mediation services at neighborhood levels and things like that.
[00:37:28] Caller: Perhaps something like this developed a little further and some of the other beautiful uh cultural things of Hawaii might become part of a spiritual tourism rather than just seeing beautiful geography or in addition to seeing beautiful geography.
[00:37:45] Randall Roth: Let's see what Jim Dator has to say about all [unintelligible — audio glitch] comments.
[00:37:48] James Dator: Well, I agree entirely and including the fact that I believe here in Hawaii, we have uh resources for peaceful conflict resolution that me might very well uh try to
[00:38:00] Caller: develop as as an industry along the lines that you just indicated. Um work that I did a couple of years ago on um not only the Hawaiian community, but the Samoan and some of the others indicates that as the world becomes more culturally diverse, and as the United States becomes more culturally diverse, we need to look to other cultures and their ways of settling disputes uh to augment if not replace, and perhaps in many areas, to replace the adversarial system and the willingness to to go to war that is characteristic of the Anglo-Saxons.
[00:38:37] Randall Roth: Right. Uh thank you Ben.
[00:38:39] Speaker 2: One other thought, perhaps could we think about here, and as well as other countries, putting conflict resolution into the regular schools for making it a course. A course that you, you, you go on with three or four times, so that each time you learn a higher level of skills. Uh there are people who are saying it ought to be part of the four R's if we can still talk about that. The fourth one being resolving. Resolving and doing it in nonviolent ways.
[00:39:08] Randall Roth: Okay. Thank you Ben, appreciate your call. You're listening to the Price of Paradise Radio show. I'm Randy Roth, and my guests today are Professor Jim Dator from the Political Science Department at the University of Hawaii, and Professor Jack Siderhoud from the College of Business at the University of Hawaii. To ask a question or make a comment, just call 955-8821. Neighbor Islanders are always invited to call collect. Bart from Palolo, good morning.
[00:39:33] Bart: Good morning. I would like to um thank the two speakers and say that I have a comment relative to what I think would be a great future for Hawaii. Um something that is exactly fitting in with long-range planning um and I'm particularly interested in uh forestry as a future uh economic impetus in Hawaii. It seems that at this point with the sugar going out and with grazing not being too economical, I don't want to speak for the ranchers, but uh uh that there's a chance to convert lands that are available now in Hawaii um to the tune of almost a million acres, including grazing and agricultural lands, um to um expand the forest cover from about 2 million acres of which half is private and half is state to about 3 million acres.
[00:40:29] Randall Roth: Bart, let me ask Jack Siderhoud, our our resident economist, uh to talk generally about the decline of agriculture, uh specifically about what are we going to do with all of that land that's being freed up and of course, uh Bart wants to know is forestry part of that equation?
[00:40:47] Jack Suyderhoud: Well, we've been talking about forestry um as an alternative agriculture activity for a number of years, uh for the 15 years that I've lived in Hawaii. Uh that's been going on. The the problem has always been um the the economics um of the products uh don't seem to work out very well. We've talked about uh converting um biomass energy into fuels of various sorts. And um at the price of oil, it is these days, it's just not been very viable. Now um 20 years from now, perhaps that may be the case and a lot of people have argued that we should be putting more of our um or we should be investing some money in this as a sort of an insurance policy. Perhaps along the lines of what uh what Jim suggested earlier, we need to have skills in these areas to ensure against the possible uh possibility that we may we may need these resources. And I think there's some possibility there. Um my understanding is that still it is an economically not very viable.
[00:41:46] Randall Roth: Okay. Uh thank you Bart. We appreciate your call. We've got a variety of people on the line. I'm going to jump over to uh Ira Rodert, though. We gave him a call and see, Ira, are you there?
[00:41:57] Ira Rodert: Hi there. Good morning.
[00:41:58] Randall Roth: I know you've done a lot of writing about this sort of thing and teach courses on it. Uh since we've only got three professors in here now, we thought we'd get a fourth into this conversation. We we've got a bunch of people waiting on the line, but uh I want to get your your thoughts quickly on on everything you've been listening to.
[00:42:14] Ira Rodert: Well, I I think that one of the uh points that Jim makes all the time is that there are alternative futures that you know with the S on it. And what I'm hearing uh on the radio and I hear it in the community all the time is there are some very distinctively different directions that people want to go. And uh you hear the notion here about forestry and the kind of the comment, well, it's not economically viable. And it's kind of the classic conventional answer, and there are a whole lot of people in Hawaii, I think who want to who want to go in a different direction and I'm certainly an advocate of that kind of green Hawaii. What I think is desperately needed here is is is for political leadership in the state to convene something like the uh Jim's Hawaii 2000, call it a 220 or something like that. And we need to to really clearly understand and create a whole new dialogue. Uh I think we can become much more self-reliant, uh in many ways. There's a clear tension between the international global economy and our own place in it, the sovereignty movement. There's really an a need to have a a clear dialogue, and and I think what it needs to be looking at, and and I think our political leaders and I think Katanu uh is is is hinting in these directions, but I think what is clear, there's no clear vision in Hawaii. I think it's not evident down the legislature, it's not evident in the governor's office. But it's it's available in the community, and we have some people like Jim Dator and others. So what I would really like to see is some kind of uh new project, and and Jim mentioned the benchmarking. I think we've learned a lot about how to implement these things. And maybe we'll end up with a situation that a lot of people will will move to Maui, or to Big Island and say uh, hey, we want to have a much more uh self-reliant uh, we want to delink ourselves from the world economy. Uh people will will perhaps stay in in Oahu and become part of the uh a suburb of Los Angeles and glory in the the opening of new supermarkets and shopping centers. Uh
[00:44:08] Randall Roth: Now, now, Ira. Okay, Ira.
[00:44:10] Ira Rodert: Well, I think that we need to have that dialogue and and uh I I would like to see the I'd like to really, you know, make a very concrete charge. I think Ben Katanu talked about setting up some kind of envisioning group when he was running for office, and uh let's see if that's something that uh he would really be behind.
[00:44:26] Randall Roth: All right. Ira.
[00:44:27] Ira Rodert: Got it.
[00:44:28] Randall Roth: Thank you. I want to get our resident economist to respond to that, because political scientists tend to approach things a little bit differently than economists. I want to get Jack's reaction, then we've got some more people on the line. Thanks a lot, Ira. Appreciate your. Thank you for the question. Thank you.
[00:44:40] Jack Suyderhoud: Well, I I agree wholeheartedly that we that future has an S on it, and uh there are things that we can do to uh position ourselves for the future. I think, however, that uh that uh there are there are economic realities that we have to deal with, and one of the realities is that uh that strikes me as being apparent is that uh we would like uh to have both a uh a wonderful environment uh whether there's no traffic ingestion and um where we are to some extent uh insulated from um outside uh forces. At the same time, we would like to have uh a certain level of wealth. We'd like to have a certain level of uh comfort. Uh we'd like to be uh part of the world community and have access to the information that's part of the world community. And so, um I I think that we could it's true what Ira says. We have to collectively decide on which uh which direction to go. Uh I I think that uh economic forces are going to be terribly important in determining that.
[00:45:40] Randall Roth: So you're saying we can't have everything.
[00:45:42] Jack Suyderhoud: Oh, absolutely. If we could have everything, we wouldn't be here.
[00:45:45] James Dator: But but I think it is possible. In fact, as I was speaking, uh to have, I was thinking that it is possible, given the the technology that Jack was talking about earlier, uh that a lot of this technology is certainly not smokestack type activities and uh it is independent of distance, and people uh who are are consulting and working globally from their their homes, in many ways, I do that myself, um as a knowledge worker, let's say, uh and and am able to would like to live. I live here because I like the environment here and I would like to enhance that aspect of it. More trees, if if that uh could have some economic viability, it would be a big uh environmental contribution, as uh forests are being cut down elsewhere, at least a small one, but a a significant one. So that I think you can in fact have the two.
[00:46:36] Randall Roth: But if this is the nicest place on earth to live uh because we've kept it green, we've kept it Hawaii and people can can earn a good living here because of the computer etc, aren't wealthy people from around the world going to come to Hawaii, bid up the cost of living here and force out folks who've been here for generations?
[00:46:56] James Dator: Yes.
[00:47:02] Randall Roth: Mike from Monoa, you've been waiting very patiently. Thank you very much.
[00:47:06] Mike: Oh, good morning gentlemen. Uh my question is in regards to uh the issue of reinscription of of Hawaii on the list of non-self-governing territories that the United Nations. Uh we were of course taken off the list of non-self-governing territories uh after the 1959 plebiscite. Uh the sovereignty group Kala Huye Hawaii has recently uh supported reinscription that's part of their master plan that they recently unveiled, and reinscription is a necessary process if Hawaii's really is realistically going to address uh non-integrated or incorporated political models that could address things like population control and non-alienation of land that might bring down the cost of uh living and doing business in Hawaii. And I was just wondering what your guests uh uh reaction is to the um prospects for such a reinscription.
[00:48:03] James Dator: Uh I'm not quite sure are you you asking whether you think the United Nations will uh accept that or the the political viability within Hawaii or or what was your I I guess it would probably be a uh a combination of both. But first of all, there would have to be enough political will within the uh body politic here to actually uh uh to make a stand on that sort of a thing. And then, of course uh uh a resolution would have to be uh introduced at the United Nations to uh to actually reinscribe Hawaii on that list. Right. Um I am am not an expert in this area. Uh and sounds like you might be.
[00:48:41] Randall Roth: Sounds like another professor to me, but go ahead.
[00:48:44] James Dator: And so I don't really know the answer. I prefer John Van Dijk or maybe Randy himself to to respond to this. But it is an example of the sorts of things I was referring to earlier that as the the parameters of the sovereignty movement, of the various sovereignty movements begun begin to get clearer, more and more people are going to see that answers like this are going to have to be be uh asked and answered. Uh questions will have to be answered and that there will have profound implications for what the world is like.
[00:49:14] Randall Roth: And cuz a lot of what you're speaking about, you know, especially when Randy says, if you keep Hawaii, Hawaii and keep it green and improve it, uh you're just, you're going to end up with more people wishing to to move here and uh then bidding up the price of land in another one of our great uh escolatory spirals. I I agree, but I still think it is also a fantasy to believe and and in a sense irresponsible to believe that given uh our complicity in encouraging the rest of the world to overpopulate, that we can then in the 21st century uh be some sort of a a garden separate from the implications of it. It's population is growing and we're going to have to bear our uh proportion of it.
[00:49:57] Randall Roth: Thank you, Mike. Appreciate your call. Karen from Nuuanu, you've been waiting more patiently than anybody. Good morning. Welcome to the Price of Paradise Radio show.
[00:50:05] Karen: Good morning. Will you comment about the future of genetics?
[00:50:10] Randall Roth: Okay. Well, boy will Jim Dator.
[00:50:13] James Dator: Well, I'm glad this is not someone that I asked to uh to introduce this question. But uh we've been focusing on a technological change that is important for the present, namely electronics. But the major uh driving technology of the 21st century, I believe, is in the area of genetic engineering. This has been something that as a futurist, I've been talking about for many, many years, but the technology is now caught up to us in many ways. And with the completion of the human genome project fairly soon, and uh a vast variety of other things that are going on, I think that uh genetic manipulation in all areas of life, not just human, but certainly human, uh will change the way uh agriculture looks, uh the way food is produced, and ultimately with um molecular engineering, so-called nanotechnology, the way even materials are produced. So, this is a a very profound um technologically induced change that we are just beginning to move into. And the ethical implications, moral, religious implications are staggering.
[00:51:21] Randall Roth: Thank you, Karen. Thank you. Um Jim, you just mentioned uh religious implications. I'm told that you shook a congregation up not long ago with a talk you gave on on the future of religion. Uh subtitled uh is there one or something like that. Well, yeah, I I uh it was uh a talk that was part of the um the St. Andrews cathedral lecture series, uh and I the topic the way I phrase it was is uh does religion have a future? And um I'm not sure we want to get into that, especially on a Sunday morning, but um I I I phrased it that way because I think it it is it's a question. I I didn't doesn't ask whether God has a future, that's a different question. But does religion, which is a an earthly manifestation of whatever else there might be on uh happening is may is being challenged, let me say, like all other institutions uh by the future.
[00:52:20] Jack Suyderhoud: I I guess for futurists, nothing uh is is sacred. Literally, or everything is sacred.
[00:52:26] Randall Roth: Everything has to be uh thought about, talked about. You assume nothing. And also, um the the basic rule of the futurist, which I mention over and over again, it's Dator's second law, is that any useful statement about the future should appear to be ridiculous. You're listening to the Price of Paradise Radio show. I'm Randy Roth. My guests today are futurist Jim Dator and economist Jack Siderhoud, both both of whom are professors at the University of Hawaii. This is a live broadcast. Your calls are welcome. To ask a question or make a comment, just call 955-8821. Bill from Palolo, good morning.
[00:53:06] Bill: Hey, good morning. Uh there's an excellent story and very frightening story in uh this March uh Honolulo magazine. Uh it's about Kunia Village Park, or no, it's Village Park, and they're very concerned about their uh drinking water and their soil. I was wondering, is there any political entity in Hawaii that is going to start facing up to these problems with their drinking water, and what you think they're going to do about it?
[00:53:35] Randall Roth: Well, let's uh let's see. Jack Siderhoud, you've already said you don't think uh our political leaders currently are really looking at uh long-term opportunities and problems. Jim Dator, how do you have uh a Dator, how Jim Dator, do you have a a thought on how our our political leaders are doing uh generally?
[00:53:54] James Dator: Well, uh may I instead of responding to that just pick your pick your question, comment about water. Now, I don't at all know the details of um the story that that you're referring to, but I do know that concerns about, first of all, the existence of water and um the purity of water, things that we more or less have taken for uh for granted, certainly here in Hawaii, but everywhere in the world, is one of the major challenges of the future. Uh everywhere in the world, uh water at all and and clean water is a a major challenge, and as population continues to grow, as the environment continues to change through probably global warming, uh I think that water will be a a number one issue as it will be here. I think you may be referring to the uh continued um uh pollution of our our groundwater, or the lens water through agricultural practices in the past. And if that is the situation here in Hawaii as it might be, uh we're just part of what's happening everywhere all over the world.
[00:55:01] Randall Roth: Bill, we've got to move on. We've got some folks waiting on the line, but we appreciate your call. Okay. Eva from Kanteo, hey, good morning, Eva.
[00:55:08] Caller: Yeah, good morning. Uh I know this is a controversial issue, but would you please comment on Hawaii as a sovereign Hawaiian nation? The possibilities for say stemming population and stemming all the growth of mega business and so forth.
[00:55:26] Randall Roth: Uh Jack Siderhoud earlier, Jim Dator commented that uh overpopulation is is a problem and in the Price of Paradise books, uh we had a chapter talking about how as a state of the United States, we can't control uh immigration. Uh sometimes people talk about sovereignty as being the answer, that all of a sudden we would have control over our our borders. I I think that's one aspect of what Eva's raising. Any thoughts on that?
[00:56:00] Jack Suyderhoud: Well, I I do know that there is concern, and Jim has raised these, about the um what the uh sovereignty movement will do in terms of the basic economic ground rules that uh that we play under. Uh that is to say, uh who makes the basic determination of land use, policies, uh property rights, uh under a uh a sovereign um Hawaii. Um those sorts of things. I'm I'm I just don't know exactly how how that will play out, but it's clearly an issue that we'll we'll have to face in the next 20 years.
[00:56:31] Randall Roth: Mhm. Jim Dator, you're the you're the person who brought up Proposition 187 and the problem with world migration and whatnot. Gavin Daws wrote a letter to me not long ago commenting that that sovereignty may not be the answer so far as migration is concerned because we probably wouldn't have an ability to police our our borders anyway. What's your reaction to that?
[00:56:51] James Dator: [unintelligible — audio glitch]'s really what I mean. I think not only would we not have the ability, I don't think we would have the moral, we might have the legal right, but I don't think we have the moral right.
[00:57:00] Randall Roth: to do it. I think that take that one of the major tsunamis is a a massive migrations of people from all over the world, partly simply because of population growth and but if the any of [unintelligible — audio glitch] major concerns about global warming and sea level rise come to be the case, then, uh, I think there's going to be even more massive migrations. First of all, from our neighbor Pacific Islands who will vanish, uh, as well.
[00:57:26] Jack Suyderhoud: as will Waikiki and, um, the fact that we will have to, uh, take them on. So I I I just don't think it's, it's viable.
[00:57:34] Caller: Eva, thank you for your call. Thank you very much.
[00:57:37] Eileen: Uh, Eileen from Honolulu. Good morning, Eileen. Yes, I wanted to ask a question going back to an older idea of the carrying capacity of the island of Oahu, with regard to the ability with water resources, people's resources, and land, and whether that couldn't be used as one of the arguments regarding free travel across state lands, state boundaries, rather.
[00:58:00] Randall Roth: It, uh, that's I I do remember the conversation, uh, was taken very seriously as a concept back in the '70s, uh, and, um, I don't think it has any, would, would have any legal standing. I'm unaware. Randy, again, you might know. I'm unaware that, uh, environmental considerations such as the carrying capacity of a land has been upheld in in court to prevent migration.
[00:58:25] Jack Suyderhoud: No, and I I think the political concern is that if the folks in Washington, D.C. made an exception for Hawaii, that have 49 other folks in in line with different competing, you know, requests.
[00:58:34] Randall Roth: But let me say about carrying capacity per se, um, it is a highly relative, um, term, I believe. And, uh, again, this is something that we haven't gotten into at all, but it's my strong sense that nature, as, um, as forces unaugmented or uninfluenced by human activities doesn't exist anymore and that we need to understand that we live in an increasingly artificial world. I've been harping on the the question of of population and population growth, but that's only one of many, uh, reasons why I feel that we're going to have to, um, uh, be very active in creating new definitions of carrying capacity because we probably already exceeded nature's ability.
[00:59:22] Eileen: I was wondering from a backwards point of view, uh, Eileen, this this has to be real quick. We're running we were running out of sewage waste disposal facilities and solid waste disposal facilities, um, our carrying capacity would be negative.
[00:59:35] Randall Roth: Yes. I think in many ways, we probably already have are. As a climate as a as a globe.
[00:59:41] Jack Suyderhoud: Thank you, Eileen. Uh, Jack, something that we just have to talk about before uh the hour is is over is tourism. Tourism is, I think, uh everyone would agree, at least currently, the engine that's running our our local economy. I'm told that tourism has always existed on a bell curve, that that tourism has has peaked in various places that have relied upon it around the world and then slid back down. Is that true? And if so, where are we on on [unintelligible — audio glitch] curve, whether it's a bell curve or some other curve? Um, well, my my understanding is it's more of an S-curve and that is, uh, you go up the S-curve and you you reach a level, um, of relatively high market penetration and after that, uh, you have to preserve that that market share. Um, and basically, that's that's sort of where we are now. My suspicion is that, uh, we're not going to have a tremendous amount of, uh, tourism growth unless we, um, look at different niches in the tourism market and perhaps that's the, uh, one of the reasons for the convention center trying to go after a different, uh, part of the, uh, travel market.
[01:00:47] Jack Suyderhoud: Is is the convention center, uh, evidence that there is futures thinking with respect to tourism in Hawaii? Well, it's a it's evidence of the fact that, uh, that there was some thinking about 20 or 30 years ago, that we finally, uh, gotten somewhere with it. Um, I I I think there a lot of people in the visitor industry are looking at the future, uh, primarily because, uh, that's where, uh, their livelihood is. And so they're looking at what sort of things that they can do in order to attract visitors. Okay. Well, this show focuses on on local issues, problems, opportunities that that are of immediate concern to the people of Hawaii. But at the beginning of this show, Jim, you were talking about, uh, Newt Gingrich and what's going on in Washington and how Newt has been talking about this for for decades, and you comment a get some other thoughts to share on that. We're down to the last few minutes, go for it.
[01:01:40] Randall Roth: Well, I don't know whether I want to start at this point, but I really think that, um, that that the things that that Newt is doing, uh, if in fact they are carried out as extensively as he intends and so far they are, but, um, we still don't know exactly what the Senate's going to do with many things, much less what the President, is part [unintelligible — audio glitch] a vision that he has that many other people share, of uh really getting rid of the federal government, of reducing it to either to absolutely nothing, or maybe to a military or security issue, but really uh getting it uh out of all almost all of the things that it has been in since the Second World War. This will have absolutely profound implications. And I I believe that it is indeed a revolution of of enormous magnitude. He, uh, Newt, uh compares himself to, uh, Roosevelt, and uh that is FDR, and says that the sort of thing that he is bringing in through with his contract will be as revolutionary for our future as the New Deal and the welfare state was uh in the '30s. I think it's even more revolutionary than that. Uh and I I take it very seriously because as you just said, it's something that he has been working towards very clearly for about 20 years and has gotten all of the pieces now together to make it become reality. So one of the major new, uh ways we have to view ourselves as a state, uh is one in which the US federal government will simply be unable to do most of the things that it has done for good or ill, uh in the past 50 or 30 years or so.
[01:03:35] Jack Suyderhoud: Jack Cyder How, you've got 15 seconds to uh, comment on that. Well, I I tend to agree, and I think that if indeed that's the case, uh, that's going to be very important for Hawaii because, uh, the federal presence here has always been one of the, uh, important things that drives the local economy. Mhm. Well I want to thank uh my guest today, Professor Jack Cyder How from the College of Business at the University of Hawaii and Professor Jim Dater from Political Science Department at the University of Hawaii. The Price of Paradise producer is Suzy Roth. The technical director is Jeff Hilardy. You've been listening to the Price of Paradise radio show. I'm Randy Roth. Aloha.
[01:04:23] Jack Suyderhoud: This is listener supported KPR 88.1 Honolulu, KKUA 90.7 Wailuku and serving Central Oahu and the North Shore at 88.7 translator K204BB, Ali'i Eva, Skullfield Barracks.